If David Cameron were to succeed Gordon Brown as Prime Minister, how many wheels would he seek to reinvent? Taken at face value, the speeches and commitments made by Maude suggest much of the same emphasis on the plural supply of public services, with a much expanded role for private companies and the third sector, and on improved customer experience and other elements in the Varney roster. But wouldn't Maude (or whoever became reform minister in a Cameron government) be tempted to ditch the past? Wouldn't the Tories want their own logo and bring in their own business guru to report? The answer depends on whether 'transformation', however it may be branded, is being embedded in the practice, assumptions and attitudes of both public servants and the public. Often the transformation dialogue is heavily one-sided, implying it's a job for officials. Actually, it has as much to do with the expectations of those they serve, and their willingness to put a premium on one goal (coherence in service delivery) over another (dislike of data sharing between government agencies, for example). Polls indicate that the public is not always realistic in aligning what taxes will pay for with what service level can be purchased. Customer orientation – the willingness of public bodies to think about whom they serve and how – is now grounded. Election outcomes may not matter in terms of the basic quality of service offered.

In Scotland, for example, local authorities have, if anything, become more customer focused since the political upsets of 2007, which saw the Scottish National Party take over in Edinburgh and Labour lose many council seats. Tom Watson, the Cabinet Office Public Services Minister, suggests there is now a sort of subterranean inevitability about aspects of the improvement agenda. He tells officials, "You know that the way that government configures public services is going to change beyond comprehension in years to come and you want to be part of it."

Alexis Cleveland, Transformation Director in the Cabinet Office, believes there is a ratchet effect that, paradoxically, makes history less relevant. "It's amazing how quickly we, as customers, take for granted some of the advantages – to be able to choose which hospital to go to, and how quickly you can get appointments now.

"People rapidly forget what it was like a few years ago. This is the challenge for us - the ever-rising expectations that people have."

Whatever the weather
Understood as a programme focused on interactive government services - advice, cash payments and the like - transformation will persist, whatever the political weather. Powerful drivers of change will not let up. People will continue to benchmark how the government treats them against their experience with banks or insurance companies.

Technology will inevitably alter certain classes of transaction, pushing more public services online. Pressure to improve public sector websites is not going to diminish.

The depth of the information pond in which the public and public services swim will get deeper; we will all need better sonar navigation, filters and submersibles. But beware rogue metaphors.