For over a year now, the UK economy, like the rest of the world's, has been riding a wave of uncertainty. With the picture changing daily - and with the prospects of much greater government intervention both in the UK and the US – it is impossible to predict how long or deep the downturn might be. Unemployment will clearly go up but it is unwise to speculate by how much. In short, we have to get used to living with uncertainty. What is certain is that the current difficulties - intense though they may be - should not lead to a panic of short-term, cost-cutting measures which damage our ability to bounce back and make the most of the opportunities brought about by a return to fiscal stability.

A recession is not a signal to back off from training. rather, it's a time to take it more seriously than ever. To prove that point it is important to learn the lessons rom the recession of the early 1990s.

First, in the period 1990-92 the government intervened by setting up various education programmes for the unemployed. These were not well targeted and when the country emerged from the recession it still faced great problems of skill shortages. So it's essential that any investments we make now in skills must be aligned to employers' needs, and not simply a training 'sheep dip' designed to massage the unemployment figures. Second, one of the few benefits of a downturn is that it drives adaptable employers to become more efficient. The organisations that come through the next couple of years will emerge with considerable productivity gains. They may be leaner but also fitter. It is vital for long-term prosperity that productivity gains are 'locked in' to ensure that hard-learned lessons are not lost.

Third, rather than wasting 'downtime' as production slows down, employers should use that time to invest both in the people they are retaining and those they may let go. Sharpening skills, not neglecting them, is the best way an employer can assist the people it might lose - as well as the people it is retaining. To put it bluntly, we are currently slipping further and further down the skills league table. The evidence of this comes from OECD statistics, which show that while our 45-54 year olds are rated 17th in the world for their level of education, workers in their twenties are judged to be 25th in the world.

Given that it was a summit meeting of the 'Group of Twenty' that was convened in Washington in November 2008 to address the financial crisis, this is not a healthy sign. On current trends, we would not qualify, in skills terms, for membership of this key group of nations that determines the future of the world's economy.

The UK is in catch-up mode. How we respond is the key question for employers, the government and individuals over the next couple of years. It is imperative that we turn this global slowdown to our advantage. If we invest in skills we will be the ones to survive. If we fail to do so, we will face a double whammy of skill shortages in the years ahead. We will compound our legacy of under-investment with a further setback during the downturn. Add in the fact that the skills and the motivation of the unemployed can deteriorate very fast and you can envisage the toxic cocktail of skills decline which potentially lies ahead.

Training is essential at all levels: leadership skills for managers; higher-level technical skills; and basic skills for those at the lower levels. The positive message is that the economic downturn presents us with an opportunity to make good the deficit in basic skills and also to upgrade our higher-level skills so that we are fit to compete more effectively as markets open up once again. However, a failure to respond risks leaving us even further behind than we are now. The choice is that simple.