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Will Straw Ethos predictions

Will Straw, Associate Director for Strategic Development at IPPR, identifies some headline-grabbing changes we can expect to see happening soon

The coalition will feel the strain

The left-wing Social Liberal Forum is increasingly influential within the Liberal Democrat party and will be pushing for greater action to tackle pay differentials in the workplace, and for clearer limits to private sector involvement in the provision of public services. Meanwhile, the Tory right is likely to argue for progress on the party’s pledge to introduce a marriage tax break (which the Lib Dems oppose) and for more movement on the abolition of the Human Rights Act.

Milliband brothers reunited?

Although his personal ratings have increased since the News International scandal broke, Ed Miliband could still do with a ‘wow’ moment in the autumn to cement his position as Labour leader. What better way than announcing that his brother and rival for the Labour’s leadership will rejoin the shadow cabinet? One possibility would be David Miliband taking up his old job as William Hague’s shadow, but with a roving role working with Liam Byrne on Labour’s policy review.

The labour market looks unlikely to improve for young people in the next six months

Unemployment for 16- to 24-year-olds is rising again and stands at over 20%. The government will want to show that it is addressing the problem but will struggle to find the money to pay for more than a few thousand apprenticeships or work placements. A step in the right direction but not nearly enough.

Double-whammy health crisis

A double-whammy winter health service crisis is looking increasingly likely because of financial pressures, due to the efficiency savings (of anything up to £20 billion) and to institutional instability. Hospitals with deficits may need to be bailed out by foundation hospitals, thus undermining the government’s commitment to localism. Waiting times are already increasing, so bringing back selected targets may be on the cards.

The ‘free schools’ policy will be tested in practice when admissions start this month

There are risks with regards to the suitability of buildings, the experience of staff, and the composition of the pupil intake compared to neighbouring schools. If there are teething problems, expect parents and opponents of the scheme to take to the airwaves.

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